Solar Storm

What are Solar Storms? A solar storm is a storm on the sun that produces solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which emit charged particles out into space.

Not all of these charged particles will hit the earth but the ones that do, depending on their strength, will create amazing light shows known as aurora borealis in the northern hemisphere and the aurora australis in the southern hemisphere as well as reek havoc on local or regional power grids.

Cycle 24

These storms happen in cycles and according to NOAA Space Environment Center solar storm cycle 24 began in 2007 and should peak in late 2011 or 2012. The peak of this cycle has been forecasted to be the most intense cycle in fifty years.

These cycles occur every 11 years or so as the Sun reverses its magnetic field, thus producing a cycle of solar storms marked by solar flares, sunspots and magnetic storms that can have disruptive effects on Earth.

During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the sun. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections (CME) or solar electromagnetic pulse (EMP), shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting the planet's ionosphere and geomagnetic field.

Depending on the strength, these jolts have the potential to affect power grids, critical military and airline communications, satellites and Global Positioning System GPS) signals, and even threaten astronauts with harmful radiation.

Effects of Solar Flares and How to Prepare

Auroras / Northern Lights

The Earth has a natural protection against these charged particles: its magnetic field and atmosphere that blocks most of them. However, some charged particles can enter the atmosphere at the poles.

One of the most spectacular (and extremely beautiful) consequence of this are auroras. When charged particles (especially electrons) find their way at the poles, they get accelerated along the lines of the magnetic field and collide with the particles in the atmosphere which makes them glow. That glow is what we see as an aurora.

Auroras illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of red and green creating displays of dancing color.

Aurora Borealis Over the North Pole in Alaska Northern Lights Aurora Borealis

Solar Cycle Maxium

Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots—dark blotches on the sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity.

The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur.

The February 2011 solar storm may have been the biggest since 2007, but it was relatively small in historical terms. It caused some radio communications problems and minor disruption of civil aviation as airlines routed flights away from the polar regions, said Dr Lubchenco.

As early as 2006, Dr. M. Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) predicted that, "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one." Dr. Dikpati forecasts a Solar Max will occur in 2012.

And while it probably won't be the biggest peak on record, human society has never been more vulnerable. The basics of daily life—from communications to weather forecasting to financial services—depend on satellites and high-tech electronics.

A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warned that a century-class solar storm could cause billions in economic damage. They boldly warned that a solar EMP will short out the electrical power grid, forcing up to 130 million Americans to go without electricity for months or years.

1989 Quebec Blackout

Although not as intense as what has been predicted for 2011 solar maxium, Quebec Province experienced such an event in 1989.

On March 13th, 1989 a huge solar induced magnetic storm that played havoc with the ionosphere, and the earth's magnetic field. This storm, the second largest storm experienced in the past 50 years, totally shut down Hydro-Quebec, the power grid servicing Canada's Quebec province.

The Carrington Event - A Super Solar Flare

September 1, 1859, 33-year-old Richard Carrington, England's foremost solar astronomers, observed a group of sunspots.

Suddenly, before his eyes, two brilliant beads of blinding white light appeared over the sunspots, intensified rapidly, and became kidney-shaped.

The explosion produced not only a surge of visible light but also a mammoth cloud of charged particles and detached magnetic loops, CME, and hurled that cloud directly toward Earth.

The next morning when the CME arrived, it crashed into Earth's magnetic field, causing the global bubble of magnetism that surrounds our planet to shake and quiver.

Just before dawn the next day, skies all over planet Earth erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated even at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.

Researchers call this a "geomagnetic storm." Rapidly moving fields induced enormous electric currents that surged through telegraph lines and disrupted communications. NASA Picture of 2006 Solar Flare

Right: A modern solar flare recorded Dec. 5, 2006, by the X-ray Imager onboard NOAA's GOES-13 satellite. The flare was so intense, it actually damaged the instrument that took the picture. Researchers believe Carrington's flare was much more energetic than this one.

Solar Storm Classification

Scientists classify solar flares according to their brightness in the x-ray wavelength. They group flares into 3 categories:

X-CLASS FLARES: Major event with the potential to trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

M-CLASS FLARES: Medium-sized, generally causing brief radio blackouts affecting Earth's polar regions. Minor radiation storms sometimes follow an M-class flare.

C-CLASS FLARES: Compared to X- and M-class events, C-Class flares are small with few noticeable consequences here on Earth.

The video below is a stunning example of an X Class Solar Flare

Speed of Travel

Most proton storms or CMEs take two or more hours from the time of visual detection to reach Earth. CMEs are large clouds of charged particles that are ejected from the sun over the course of several hours and can carry up to ten billion tons of plasma. They expand away from the sun at speeds as high as a million miles an hour.

January 2005 was a stormy month in space. With little warning, a giant spot materialized on the sun and started exploding. From Jan. 15 through Jan. 19, sunspot 720 produced four powerful solar flares.

A solar flare on January 20, 2005 released the highest concentration of protons ever directly measured, taking only 15 minutes after observation to reach Earth, indicating a velocity of approximately one-third light speed.

Impact of Solar Storms

Loss of Power is the main concern. The time required for full recovery of service would depend on both the disruption and damage to the electrical power infrastructure and to other national infrastructures. Some predict it will only be a matter of hours or days to restore power as seen with the event in Quebec. While others predict it could years to restore power.

Larger affected areas and stronger EMP field strengths will prolong the time to recover. Some critical electrical power infrastructure components are no longer manufactured in the United States, and their acquisition ordinarily requires up to a year of lead time in routine circumstances. Damage to or loss of these components could leave significant parts of the electrical infrastructure out of service for periods measured in months to a year or more.

Most standby power systems would continue to function after a severe solar storm, but supplying the standby power systems with adequate fuel, when the main power grids are offline for years, could become a very critical problem.

There is a point in time at which the shortage or exhaustion of sustaining backup systems, including emergency power supplies, batteries, standby fuel supplies, communications, and manpower resources that can be mobilized, coordinated, and dispatched, together lead to a continuing degradation of critical infrastructures for a prolonged period of time.

Solar Forecasting & Warnings

While it may not be possible to stop the solar storms, it would be useful to know when they are coming to better prepare for them. Below are links to sites reporting current activity, warnings and the Long Range Solar Storm Forecast.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

http://www.spaceweather.com/rsga.html

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/